The Economy: Evaluating the economy is a matter of thinking locally within the context of the larger national and global picture. The US economy continues to expand as it has done since 2009. A combination of free money from the Fed, rising asset values in real estate/stocks, tax cuts, deficit spending, profit repatriation and a doubling of consumer debt has fueled this growth. All these factors have ended or are close to their limits as the environment has evolved. Future growth will have to come from areas other than monetary or fiscal stimulus as the Fed continues to tighten. One area of stimulus may be the integration of US Trade and Foreign policy. We’re seeing this with tariffs being imposed on friend and foe alike. Foreign policy is no longer being driven by trade and vice versa. These are long term trends that bear watching. For San Diegans, one thing is certain, with the Pivot to The Pacific in response to the rise of China, Defense Department money will increasingly pour into San Diego County. This will draw other industries into the area and continue to support the growth dynamic. |
