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Higgins Capital Management, Inc.

Tariff Tensions and Yield Curve Inversions

By Debbie 

The Economy: Investors in the U.S. stock markets are shrugging off any/all tariff concerns. The Nasdaq finished at a new record close on Thursday. This is after a dip in the middle of the week on tariff tensions. Q2 earnings season starts Friday, led by the big banks. On the bond market front, the U.S. treasury yield curve spread drops (2y/10y +26.1 spread; 5y/30y +19.8bps). One more rate hike and the yield curve inverts, historically an indication of an impending recession within 12 months. An inverted yield curve occurs when short-term rate yield more than long-term rates.

Food for Thought: Right now we have momentum in the growth of the U.S. economy. However, the probability of a recession (12-24 months out) may be closer than you realize if just a couple of events materialize; 1) an inverted yield curve and 2) tariff wars impact on earnings. Be aware of how this may impact your job and financial planning.

Mixing Business with Pleasure: Read an interesting article, Things Cooks Know in the May Real Simple Magazine about pairing herbs:

1) Mint–Pair lots of mint with parsley for a fresh Middle Eastern Flavor

2) Chives–Toss with parsley, tarragon, and chervil for classic French

3) Rosemary–Stuns in a lemon pound cake; herbal iced tea-steep rosemary in hot water with lemon verbena, then chill

4) Basil–in desserts alongside strawberries and stone fruit; toss with cilantro and mint to give a meal a Southeast Asian flair

5) Cilantro–Combine with cumin and oregano for Latin American dishes; curry powder for Indian meals and coconut milk for aromatic Thai dishes

6) Sage–Use with pan-fried butter or olive oil (pasta, pork tenderloin, or chicken); compliments roasted peaches or apples…especially combined with woody thyme

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