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Higgins Capital Management, Inc.

Old Dog Hot Money

The Economy: The Old Dog has more life in it. Strong results from Microsoft and Facebook kept the NASDAQ positive while industrials such as 3M slumped on plans to cut the workforce by 2,000. Unemployment at 50-year lows. Consumer confidence spiking to near highs. Home prices up 4% yoy. GDP blowout numbers. The numbers show a booming economy with Fed pledges of no interest rate hikes at least through the 2020 Presidential election. The Administration  is increasing political pressure for QE4. Defense spending pouring billions into the west coast as China's global designs become more apparent. Current global macro strategy: Interest rates lower for longer and stocks upward forever.

Food for Thought: Hot money is rolling through the markets like a tsunami. First lifting one sector or one stock before moving on. Today it was Google's turn. Google missed earnings and the stock was down 8% overnight; down 100 points. What does it mean? Nothing really … except watch your step and The Fed. After his attitude adjustment at the woodshed, Jay Powell was reborn as a Janet Yellen True Believer in lower for longer to facilitate upward forever. The manipulated spike off the 2018 lows is the most dramatic in history. Current YTD Status:


Dow 30 +13%

S&P 500 +15%


Russell 2000 +17%

Semiconductor Index +28%

VIX  -48% 

The question investors should be asking is: If the annualized performance, 4-months into the year, is up 40%-80%, how much higher do you think it will go? Answer: To Infinity and Beyond.